Baltimore Orioles: What’s Necessary To Become A Wild Card Contender In 2023?
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After pummeling the Mariners in Seattle last night, the Baltimore Orioles are 35-40 after their initial 75 games of this 2022 season.
While that sub-500 record has the O’s still in last-place in the American League East, their .467 Winning Percentage has the team on a 76 win pace.
What will it take for them to go from this current level of play, to a team with legitimate post-season aspirations in ’23?
Before we identify what will be needed, we have to review what exists.
Filled Positions:
- Catcher, Adley Rutschman
- LF, Austin Hays
- CF, Cedric Mullins
- 1st, Ryan Mountcastle
There isn’t much that needs to be said with this group above. They have these positions for the forseeable future, with the only plausible question being would the O’s consider trading Mullins and inserting Hays in CF? That seems unlikely to me.
Possible Positional Answers:
- DH, Trey Mancini
- RF, Anthony Santander
- RF, Kyle Stowers
- 3rd, Gunnar Henderson
- 2nd, Jordan Westburg
The Orioles and Mancini have a mutual option for ’23. Will that happen? Will there be an extension? Will he be traded? TBD.
Santander has a 10.5% BB% this year, compared to 6.1% for his career. He has real power. He’s capable of being adequate in RF. He’s arbitration eligible for ’23 and ’24. Like Mancini, it’s not clear if he will be traded. If Mancini is moved, Santander could also get time at DH.
Stowers, Henderson, and Westburg are each at AAA Norfolk.
Stowers has a .885 OPS after 204 ab’s with the Tides.
Henderson has gone from being a quality prospect to one of the game’s brightest prospects this year. He annilated AA Bowie, and has continued to produce for Norfolk. At Bowie and Norfolk combined, he’s walked 56 times, and struck out 55 times.
Westburg rebounded from a cold spell at Bowie to earn his promotion to Norfolk, and he’s been crushing it with the Tides over his initial 70 AAA ab’s.
Henderson and Westburg both have position versatility, which is part of their overall value. They both have the ability to play SS, with Henderson earning positive reviews from our BSL On The Verge colleagues for his improved defense.
Ultimately, I see Henderson settling in at 3rd, and Westburg taking over 2nd.
If Mancini and/or Santander are moved at the trade deadline; Stowers figures to be up.
I continue to expect Westburg to reach the Majors in ’22, and to be part of the ’23 Opening Day lineup.
It’s quite possible that Henderson debuts in the Majors here in ’22, but if that doesn’t happen, the O’s will likely keep him in the Minors to begin ’23 until they’ve gained the additional year of team control. Either way, you can expect Henderson to spend the majority of ’23 in the Major Leagues.
Starting Pitching:
- John Means
- Grayson Rodriguez
- Tyler Wells
- Dean Kremer
- Kyle Bradish
- Jordan Lyles
- DL Hall
Means had Tommy John surgery April 27th. When he rejoins the O’s is a guessing game, but I’d set the over/under at mid-June ’23. When he does return, the biggest question for him will be feel, particularly with his changeup.
Grayson Rodriguez is out with Grade 2 Lat strain. There is some suggestion he could possibly return in September, but that’s TBD. It’s unfortunate he’s missing this time, as he would be part of the O’s current rotation. He was overwhelming AAA hitters, and on the precipice of a call-up. Orioles GM Mike Elias has noted Rodriguez will begin ’23 in the Orioles rotation.
Wells has been highly usable so far in the rotation, far exceeding my expectations for him. He doesn’t beat himself, and that’s half-the-battle.
’21 was a disaster for Kremer, but he’s acquitted himself well so far in his four ML starts to begin ’22. It would be huge for the O’s to end the year believing he’s a viable starter.
Bradish is currently on the IL with shoulder inflammation, but expected to return to the roster shortly. He’s been knocked around some, but his pure ability is apparent. Hopefully he can stay healthy the rest of the year and begin to settle in. He has the pure stuff to eventually be really good if he can put it all together.
Lyles isn’t going to wow anyone, but he takes the ball every 5th day and typically gives the O’s an opportunity to win. The O’s hold a club option for ’23, and if he puts up a 2nd half which replicates what we’ve seen in his 15 starts so far – I’d expect the O’s to pick-up that option.
Hall has exceptional ability, but he has to harness his control. He’s up to 46 innings on the year (A+, AA, AAA), after 31.2 last year, NA ’20, and 80.2 ip in ’19. He’s not fully baked, and he has plenty to work on; but I’d like to see him up soon. He’s obviously on a pitch / inning count. And I’d like his next 50 +/- innings this year to be at the ML level, pitching in relief in tandem with probably Wells. My general thinking there is that whenever he ascends to the Majors he is going to go through adjustments. I just think utilizing this time for ML innings now, would have better prepared to ask for more out of him next year. That said, after back-to-back outings where he’s allowed 5 bb’s, that can not be rewarded. I’d probably have to see successive starts with that under control before I’d promote.
When is Means going to be back available in ’23 is a question.
How effective is Means when he returns is a question.
How much can you expect from Rodriguez in Year 1 is a question. (My answer would be expect him to be a league average 3rd to 5th starter in Year 1 who flashes.)
How Wells, Kremer, Bradish end ’22, and what you will think of them heading into ’23 is going to be a question.
If the O’s feel good about that trio in the back of the rotation, that would go a long way in-terms of building the overall roster.
The Bullpen:
- Jorge Lopez
- Felix Bautista
- Dillon Tate
- Cionel Perez
- Keegan Akin
- Joey Krehbiel
- Nick Vespi
- Bryan Baker
It’s trite at this point to use the oft used cliché of relievers can be volatile.
No kidding, really?
So if you are looking at the Orioles relievers and you think what they are doing is not sustainable, that’s fine and reasonable.
Yes, the collective K rates are low (the O’s pen is 27th in K/9).
Yes, the collective xFIP is 19th overall.
But the bullpen is 2nd overall in fWAR, and 1st overall in WPA.
Lopez showed his ability at times as a starter last year. The arm, and the talent was there.
It was also clear he wasn’t capable of going through lineups 3x.
He’s been exceptional this year in relief. Because educated fans are aware of relievers general volatility, and because it feels to many that Lopez came out of ‘nowhere’, there are those that want the Orioles to trade him this year with his value at a ‘high.’
It only takes one team to offer you more than you can afford to turn down, but I think there is a fallacy in the idea of selling high. It’s 2022. Every Front Office is stacked with highly intelligent analysts. If Joe Fan questions if Lopez can sustain his production, than every Front Office will have the same questions.
Lopez is arbitration eligible for ’23 and ’24. There would have to be some desperate team offering a whole lot for me to trade him.
Bautista can be as good as he wants to be. Good grief. Just ridiculous talent.
I could go through the rest individually, but a collective comment to say that I like them as a group and find them all usable will suffice.
We will see how they finish, if their usage gets to them, especially if the rotation in-front of them falls apart.
But right now there is an awful lot to like.
Others:
- Jorge Mateo
- Ramon Urias
- Ryan McKenna
- Robinson Chirinos
- Tyler Nevin
- Rougned Odor
- Richie Martin
You certainly don’t need to be a scout to see Mateo’s athleticism. He’s been better at the routine play this year at SS, and unbelievable at times with the difficult. But after 229 ab’s this year, he has a sub. 600 OPS, and is getting on-base at a .250 clip. That just doesn’t cut it.
I’m a Urias fan, but don’t want him starting. Fine utility option.
I like McKenna as a 4th OF because of his defensive ability. He has a little more pop than you’d think. It’s hard to hit playing once a week.
Chirinos would be a fine option for the backup C job if he wants to return next year. The offensive numbers look horrible, but I think that’s partly because the 38 year old wore out a bit playing daily waiting for Rutschman to be promoted. As a once a week player, with great defense, I think his experience provides value to the roster.
I don’t see Nevin ever being a ML regular, but he’s better defensively than I anticipated and does have some power. Not a bad reserve.
Odor has some fun swag, but he’s also got a .199 baa, and a .639 OPS even with a good May.
There are too many options on the come for him to have a spot much longer.
Credit to Martin for producing at AAA, and earning the callup when need provided opportunity.
I don’t see even a utility future for him with the O’s though.
Other Minor League Talent To Highlight:
- Terrin Vavra
- Coby Mayo
- Colton Cowser
- Heston Kjerstad
- Connor Norby
- Cesar Prieto
- Joseph Ortiz
- Hudson Haskin
- Drew Rom
- Carter Baumler
There are other interesting players in the system which I’m not naming here.
I have these 10 guys listed, because I think they are the best combination of Potential Ability to Help / Prestige / Trade Value.
While I’m all aboard the Westburg train for 2nd, Vavra might get first crack.
I think I speak for all Oriole fans, that it’s great to see Kjerstad healthy and playing.
As he shakes off the rust, look for him to move quick.
Mayo, Cowers, and Norby were all just promoted to AA Bowie.
Speaking on Mayo in-particular, my feeling is that if he has a future with the Orioles, it’s going to be at 1st / DH. Our On The Verge colleagues rave about his arm, and say he has good athleticism. I know Bob Phelan in-particular thinks it would be a waste to limit Mayo to 1st / DH, and thinks he could find time in a Corner OF position if he can’t stay at 3rd.
If the O’s don’t obtain an external SS, it’s possible that Henderson becomes the O’s SS of the future, and Mayo slides into 3rd by the middle of next year.
But as I said above, I’m ultimately seeing Henderson manning 3rd. If Mancini is moved, that creates opportunity for Mayo at 1st / DH. If Mancini is back next year, or extended; then I think there is a good possibility that Mayo is a significant trade chip.
In-fact, you can craft a package of 3-4 of these guys, and have an attractive grouping to offer.
What Do You Need? What Is Available?
So after identifying what the Orioles have, we get back to our initial question. What do they need?
I’m of the opinion they need to go external to the organization and add a SS, and a front-end #1 or #2 starter.
If Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts opt-out from their contracts, there will be multiple high-quality SS’s that will be available in Free Agency. With Trea Turner being another option teams will be rolling out the red-carpet for.
My current preferred option is Dansby Swanson. A poster on the board made a comparison to JJ Hardy. The idea of a steady regular vs. a superstar. I think he would add depth to the O’s lineup, and be obtainable without breaking-the-bank.
Ultimately I’d want to get the rotation to where you have Player X, Means, and Rodriguez 1,2,3 – with Lyles, Wells, Bradish, Kremer, Hall giving you good options for slots 4, and 5.
So, who could make sense as Player X?
Here’s a list of FA’s after this year.
Can’t say I’m expecting a run at deGrom.
What about Luis Severino or Jameson Taillon? Could not only add to what you have, but take away from NY.
Doesn’t just have to be Free Agency that you look to add. Could look to the trade market.
The most interesting name I see available is Frankie Montas, but Montas is only under contract for ’23.
How much player capital would you be willing to trade for that year of control?
Do you think you could extend him?
Those are the questions the Front Office would be asking themselves.
I’m pretty enamored with Montas, and I’d consider giving up a fair amount to get him.
Let’s go back to Severino and Taillon.
Severino has said previously he wants to be a Yankeee for life.
You’d figure that New York could find a deal that works there.
If he does get to the free market without finding a NY extension; I’d look hard there.
What about Taillon?
A career 45-31 mark doesn’t scream de facto #1, or #2 starter; but he looks like a viable target to me.
He turn’s 31 in November, so he’s not getting some extended 6 or 7 year long-term deal. Ideally he’d be getting a 3-4 year deal.
His K% is down this year, but so are his walks. His Fastball Velocity has been maintained and is strong. Spin rate on his Fastball and Curve are strong. So is his chase rate.
He had 191 innings in ’19, missed ’20, and had 144 innings last year over 29 starts.
If he is able to finish strong this year, he profiles more like a good 3rd starter vs. a 1 or a 2 – but he’d help, especially as you waited to see when Means returns, and his effectiveness when he does.
Other Variables / Questions:
- Chris, why are you even suggesting the O’s might add players of note in Free Agency?
I’ve been wrong before, and I’ll be wrong again; but my current thinking here at the end of June is that the Orioles are going to add two contracts of some significance this Winter. That can be trading for someone (with an expectation that they’ll pursue an extension), or Free Agency.
The Orioles spent $164M in salary in ’17. That’s the equivalent of $195M today.
The Orioles ’22 team salary is approximately $45M.
I’m not expecting them to reach their ’17 levels in one gulp / one off-season.
I am expecting them to augment what they have, now that they have a core of players to move forward with; and that core is under team control for awhile making very little.
- Chris, aren’t you concerned about the Ownership squabble, or the MASN dispute, etc?
No, not really. I think Gloria and John Angelos want to keep the Ownership in the Family. I think Lou wants the team to sell, and to get his share. The Angelos family will ultimately figure out what is realistic and works for them. Whether the team stays with the Angelos family, or we see new Ownership headed by Bill Miller, Larry Lucchino, and Cal Ripken, Jr.; my anticipation is that spending will now be on the upswing.
- The 3rd Wild Card, and the forthcoming scheduling change.
This is year one of the MLB Postseason bracket including 6 teams from each league. Here in ’22, Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay would be the 3 Wild Cards in the American League if the season ended today.
The AL East is always going to be strong. NY and Boston will always have revenue. Tampa Bay has shown over an extended period they know how to draft, and develop; and their run by strong analytical minds. Toronto has built a nice core of players of their own, and begun to add pieces around what they’ve developed.
The Orioles have to always be cognizant of what the others are doing, but not consumed by them either.
Ultimately the Orioles have to focus on what they can control, and that’s their own actions.
As is, with Means on the shelf, Rodriguez on the shelf, with non-answers at 3rd, SS, and 2nd; the Orioles are playing pretty good baseball right now. In-fact they are only 6.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card. That’s with the Orioles playing their AL East foes more than anyone else. Next year, the O’s benefit more than anyone else, when Baltimore will face their divisional foes 14 games a piece instead of 19. That’s 20 less games against vs. the East. Ultimately that might lead to a 3 to 5 game improvement on the overall season record next year, just through the scheduling change.
Tampa Bay is currently on-pace for 90 wins, and in position for that 3rd Wild Card.
Is it realistic of the O’s to go from +/- 76 wins to +/- 90 wins next year?
With some added help, I think it is.
Chris Stoner
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.
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